From significance to divergence: guiding statistical interpretation through language

Purpose of review P values have long been central to medical research reporting, with the term “statistical significance” and a P value threshold of 0.05 being in common use since 1925. Despite a century of use, P values remain a topic of significant controversy and debate, particularly regarding their proper application and frequent misinterpretation. Much of this confusion stems from adoption of the everyday words “significance” and “confidence” as a label for the statistical concepts that are only loosely connected to their common meaning, subsequently exposing such misleading labels to a wide audience unaware of the disconnect. Recent findings To resolve this ambiguity, we take a look at the existing literature, conclude that this is a language issue and propose replacing “significance” with “divergence” to highlight the data's divergence from the hypothesized null model. In addition, we propose renaming the “1 − α % confidence interval” to “1 − α % uncertainty interval” which would more accurately convey its role in representing uncertainty about the possible data-generating models for the observed data. Summary The revised terminology will help researchers and readers better understand P values and uncertainty intervals, aims to reduce reporting bias (especially for nondivergent results), and will temper unrealistic replicability expectations. It would also minimize misinterpretation and over-interpretation, promoting a clearer, more nuanced understanding of their use in statistical reporting while addressing ongoing misuse controversies.

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Publication Details

Journal
Current Opinion in Epidemiology and Public Health
Published
2025-04-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1097/pxh.0000000000000050
Citations
5
Primary Topic
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
12.40
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article

From significance to divergence: guiding statistical interpretation through language

Paul Glasziou, Amgad M. Elshoeibi, Suhail A.R. Doi, Ahmed Awaisu et al.
5 citations
Current Opinion in Epidemiology and Public Health
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
12.40
article

From significance to divergence: guiding statistical interpretation through language

Paul Glasziou, Amgad M. Elshoeibi, Suhail A.R. Doi, Ahmed Awaisu, Lubna A. Zar, Aiman Tasneem Syed, Jazeel Abdulmajeed
article en
5 citations

Abstract

Purpose of review P values have long been central to medical research reporting, with the term “statistical significance” and a P value threshold of 0.05 being in common use since 1925. Despite a century of use, P values remain a topic of significant controversy and debate, particularly regarding their proper application and frequent misinterpretation. Much of this confusion stems from adoption of the everyday words “significance” and “confidence” as a label for the statistical concepts that are only loosely connected to their common meaning, subsequently exposing such misleading labels to a wide audience unaware of the disconnect. Recent findings To resolve this ambiguity, we take a look at the existing literature, conclude that this is a language issue and propose replacing “significance” with “divergence” to highlight the data's divergence from the hypothesized null model. In addition, we propose renaming the “1 − α % confidence interval” to “1 − α % uncertainty interval” which would more accurately convey its role in representing uncertainty about the possible data-generating models for the observed data. Summary The revised terminology will help researchers and readers better understand P values and uncertainty intervals, aims to reduce reporting bias (especially for nondivergent results), and will temper unrealistic replicability expectations. It would also minimize misinterpretation and over-interpretation, promoting a clearer, more nuanced understanding of their use in statistical reporting while addressing ongoing misuse controversies.

Current Opinion in Epidemiology and Public HealthVol. 4(3)
Bond University (AU), Research Network (United States) (US), Network Group (Czechia) (CZ), Qatar University (QA)
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
12.40
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