Convergence and diversity: how collective risk perception shapes public compliance behaviour – a case study of China’s Covid-19 response

This study investigates the influence of collective risk perception on public compliance behaviour, aiming to elucidate why cities exhibit significant disparities in pandemic response effectiveness and compliance levels despite implementing similar containment policies. Drawing on the perspectives of power and knowledge, we first construct an explanatory framework for collective risk perception, and employ the most similar systems design (MSSD) to examine the contrasting Covid-19 responses in Wuhan and Shanghai, China. The findings indicate that during the early stages of the Wuhan outbreak, collective risk perception exhibited a high degree of convergence, shaped by unknow knowledge, stringent government interventions, pessimistic expert evaluations, negative societal opinions and the alarming global pandemic trajectory, thereby fostering strong public compliance. Conversely, during the Shanghai outbreak, collective risk perception became highly diversified owing to the proliferation of scientific knowledge, divergence in expert opinions, dramatic shifts in government containment strategies, polarization of social opinion and the availability of alternative international response models, collectively undermining public consensus on governmental measures and attenuating compliance. On the basis of these insights, this study develops a theoretical framework delineating the interaction between collective risk perception and public compliance behaviour, positing that the degree of convergence or diversity in collective risk perception serves as a critical determinant of compliance levels. A convergent risk perception fosters high compliance, whereas a diversified perception engenders behavioural inconsistencies and lower adherence. By advancing the understanding of risk perception dynamics in public crisis governance, this study offers policy implications for future public health emergencies, emphasizing the necessity for governments to strategically construct collective risk perception through continuous and transparent crisis communication, coordinating expert consensus and guiding social discourse to enhance public adherence and optimize crisis governance outcomes.