Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis for a Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Whole-Process System

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is an emerging technology with significant potential for large-scale emissions reduction. To reduce the overall system costs of CCUS, this study first establishes a comprehensive economic cost model for the entire CCUS process. Subsequently, a Monte Carlo-based Sobol’ global sensitivity analysis method is proposed to calculate both first-order and total-order sensitivity indices, followed by qualitative and quantitative analyses of parameter sensitivity. Additionally, convergence analyses of the results and their engineering applicability are examined. The findings reveal that the total-order sensitivity indices for electricity price, flue gas inlet flow rate, pipeline diameter, pipeline material price, pipeline inlet pressure, and injection pressure are 0.6578, 0.3857, 0.5585, 0.3823, 0.2205, and 0.1949, respectively, which are significantly higher than those of the other parameters. This indicates that these parameters have a dominant impact on energy consumption costs through the processes of capture and compression, pipeline transportation, and storage injection. These results provide a basis for selecting decision variables when optimizing the entire CCUS process.