Using System Dynamics to Analyze Influencing Factors and Emission Reduction Potential of Geothermal Resources Development and Utilization in Tianjin

Geothermal resources are abundant in China and are distributed mainly in the eastern region where energy demand is high, especially in Tianjin. However, a significant disparity remains between the actual heating area and the potential heatable area of geothermal resources in Tianjin, which indicates the vast untapped potential for development and utilization in the region. In this study, we reviewed the history and current status of geothermal development in Tianjin. We further analyzed the factors affecting the development and utilization of geothermal heat in Tianjin. Subsequently, we constructed a system dynamics (SD) model of geothermal development and utilization in Tianjin. We developed four scenarios, including baseline, policy incentives, technological progress, and economic inputs. The results of the multiscenario forecasts and sensitivity analyses of the SD model showed the following: Tianjin will go through four stages of geothermal development and utilization in the future. Policy support and economic investment were the two main factors influencing the development of geothermal energy, and the influence of technological progress was comparatively smaller. Based on the above results, we proposed recommendations to promote sustainable development of geothermal energy in Tianjin according to three aspects: policy mechanism, economic investment, and technological progress.