Vegetation Restoration Outpaces Climate Change in Driving Evapotranspiration in the Wuding River Basin

For the management of the water cycle, it is essential to comprehend evapotranspiration (ET) and how it changes over time and space, especially in relation to vegetation. Here, using the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model, we explored the spatiotemporal variations in ET across different time scales during 1982–2018 in the Wuding River Basin. We also quantitatively evaluated the driving mechanisms of climate and vegetation changes on ET changes. Results showed that the ET estimate by the PT-JPL model showed good agreement (R2 = 0.71–0.84) with four ET products (PML, MOD16A2, GLASS, FLDAS). Overall, the ET increased significantly at a rate of 3.11 mm/year (p < 0.01). Spatially, ET in the WRB is higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. Attribution analysis indicated that vegetation restoration (leaf area index) was the dominant driver of ET changes (99.93% basin area, p < 0.05), exhibiting both direct effects and indirect mediation through the Vapor Pressure Deficit. Temperature influences emerged predominantly through vegetation feedbacks rather than direct climatic forcing. These findings establish vegetation restoration as a key driver of regional ET, providing empirical support for optimizing revegetation strategies in semi-arid environments.