Assessing the burden of diseases attributed to exposure to ambient particulate matter by air quality modeling

This study aimed to assess PM_2.5 exposure levels in Ahvaz, Iran, and quantify the associated burden of disease attributable to particulate pollution. To quantify uncertainty mortality and morbidity, the exposure response function model for probabilistic risk assessment was used. The analysis of aerosol variations by the Aerosol Optical Thickness indicated a decline in PM_2.5 concentrations during pandemic. During the study period, the annual mean of PM_2.5 concentrations exceeded the annual limit value established by the World Health Organization. Cause-specific mortality, including trachea bronchus lung cancer, stroke, and acute lower respiratory infections, also decreased by 14-28% in 2020. Restricted activity days and work days lost decreased by 11.8% and 13.8%, respectively, correlating with lower PM_2.5 concentrations. Years lived with disability dropped from 242.7 to 170.4 years per 10⁵ capita in 2020 during the pandemic. Mitigation strategies, including green infrastructure, industrial regulation, and improved urban planning, are needed to reduce health risks in this highly polluted region.