DILEMMA OF CO₂ MITIGATION: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE, CO₂, AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ON RICE YIELDS

Rice feeds billions of populations, and its yields are sensitive to climate change, carbon dioxide (CO[Formula: see text], and technological progress. This study estimates a model of these effects using Asian rice yield data merged with free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experimental data. A three-stage generalized least squares model is developed to quantify their effects on mean rice yields and their variance. The results show that CO 2 concentration has significantly contributed to increased rice yields, accounting for 16–26% of observed yield growth over 1990–2015. This indicates that if significant CO 2 mitigation occurs, the CO 2 fertilization effect will diminish, inducing a yield reduction. This finding suggests that increased agricultural research and development investments are needed to overcome not only adverse climate change effects but also to counteract CO 2 mitigation effects on rice yields.