Direct and Indirect Effects of Large-Scale Forest Restoration on Water Yield in China’s Large River Basins

Emerging evidence indicates that large-scale forest restoration exhibits dual hydrological effects: direct reduction of local water availability through elevated evapotranspiration (ET) and indirect augmentation of water resources via enhanced atmospheric moisture recycling. However, the quantitative assessment of these counteracting effects remains challenging due to the limited observational constraints on moisture transport. Here, we integrate the Budyko model with the Lagrangian-based UTrack moisture-tracking dataset to disentangle the direct (via ET) and indirect (via precipitation) large-scale hydrological impacts of China’s four-decade forest restoration campaign across eight major river basins. Multisource validation datasets, including gauged runoff records, hydrological reanalysis products, and satellite-derived forest cover maps, were systematically incorporated to verify the Budyko model at the nested spatial scales. Our scenario analyses reveal that during 1980–2015, extensive afforestation individually reduced China’s terrestrial water yield by −28 ± 25 mm yr−1 through dominant ET increases. Crucially, atmospheric moisture recycling mechanisms attenuated this water loss by 12 ± 5 mm yr−1 nationally, with marked spatial heterogeneity across the basins. In some moisture-limited watersheds in the Yellow River Basin, the negative ET effect was compensated for to a certain extent by precipitation recycling, demonstrating net positive hydrological outcomes. We conclude that China’s forest expansion imposes local water stress (direct effect) by elevating ET, while the concomitant strengthening of continental-scale moisture recycling generates compensatory water gains (indirect effect). These findings advance the mechanistic understanding of the vegetation-climate-water nexus, providing quantitative references for optimizing forestation strategies under atmospheric water connectivity constraints.