Exploring Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors on Cancer Rates in Central Java Using Random Forest and SHAP

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cancer, account for over 75% of global deaths, with cancer being the second leading cause.In Indonesia, cancer ranks third, and Central Java has a high prevalence of 1.7 per 1,000 population in 2023.This study analyzed cancer incidence in Central Java using a Random Forest model combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to assess local feature importance.Key risk factors identified include the presence of sugar-sweetened beverage outlets, which affect 28.6% of districts, air pollution from SO and NO, which impacts 22.9% and 11.4% of districts, respectively, and the presence of slum areas, which is associated with higher cancer risks in 8.6% of districts.These findings offer insights into targeted public health strategies aimed at reducing cancer incidence and improving community health.