Structure and changing trends of carbon footprint in sugarcane

Abstract Carbon footprint is vital for the sustainable development of sugarcane industry. In this study, a systematic investigation involving a life cycle approach, structure analysis, sensitivity analysis and the individual fixed regression was conducted on the structure, changing trends and driving factors of carbon footprint in Chinese sugarcane industry from 2012 to 2021. Results showed that the national average value of carbon footprint per unit area was 7.8317 t CO 2 e ha −1 , whereas the average carbon footprint of yield and output were 0.1029 t CO 2 e t −1 and 0.2311 kg CO 2 e yuan −1 , respectively. Notably, significant differences were observed in the carbon footprint of each main production region. Due to regional natural resource conditions, variations in industrial structure and differences in cultivation technology, Guangdong had the highest average carbon footprint per unit area (8.8213 t CO 2 e ha −1 ), while Hainan exhibited the lowest carbon footprint per unit area (7.0263 t CO 2 e ha −1 ), which was 79.65% of that in Guangdong. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that when the major carbon source varies ±40%, the indirect sensitivity coefficient was 0.9775. Interestingly, Yunnan displayed the highest direct sensitivity (0.9802), while the weakest direct sensitivity (0.6098) was observed in Guangxi. At both natural and social levels, the main drivers of carbon footprint in sugarcane were fertilizer, agricultural film, sugarcane machinery and the disposable income of rural residents. From all the above, optimizing cultivation practices and machinery use, reducing fertilizer and agricultural film inputs while maintaining high yield and high sugar production and low-carbon utilization of straw represent the three directions for low-carbon sugarcane production in the future.