Analysis of scenarios of possibledevelopment of emergencysituationsathydraulicstructures

The article presents and analyzes possible scenarios for the development of accident-catastrophic events on hydraulic structures under construction and in operation. As it is known at definition of probability of development of catastrophic situation on concrete hydraulic structure it is necessary to make identification of all dangerous factors, both natural, and technogenic character. The complex action of these factors should be considered in the area of location of a given hydraulic structure, both at the stage of its design, construction and operation. This task, to date, is very relevant because of the increasing frequency of accidents and emergencies arising at structures of this kind. The analysis of the assumed scenario of accident-catastrophic development of events on already operated hydraulic structures, will allow to predict on the basis of the ongoing research, first of all, the causes of occurrence, as well as the nature of critical damage to hydraulic structures and the probability of occurrence, as the accident-catastrophic situation and hydrodynamic accident. The article considers three characteristic scenarios of emergency situation development, gives algorithms of accidents according to these scenarios and formulates conclusions on the probability of emergency situation for a particular hydraulic structure.