A social network perspective on social cues for COVID risk perception

Lay perceptions of risks are often at odds with their empirical assessments, particularly regarding risks of peers. Going beyond only considering perceived peer risks, this study explored whether the actual social environment of a person informs their individual COVID risk perception. A cohort of Psychology freshmen (N = 88; academic year 2021/22) was surveyed about their COVID infection status in the past year, prevalence estimates within their cohort, and their social relationships. They were further queried on their expected susceptibility for a COVID infection within the forthcoming month and the potential severity of such an infection. Average student estimation of 1-year prevalence rates (71.8%) were in line with the self-reported prevalence of the cohort (69.8%, p = .110) and took infection prevalence in their social circle into account (β = 0.24, p = .025). This social circle prevalence also contributed to the individual assessment of COVID susceptibility (β = 0.24, p = .031), but not the severity of the disease (β = 0.05, p = .671). These results indicate that the perception of prevalence among peers is not necessarily biased and that social cues of prevalence in the environment are considered when estimating individual susceptibility.