MODELO DE DISTRIBUCIÓN POTENCIAL PARA EL ESTABLECIMIENTO DE PLANTACIONES FORESTALES CON Pourouma cecropiifolia EN LA AMAZONIA ECUATORIANA

<p><strong>Background</strong>. Potential Distribution Models are a key tool for the establishment of precision forestry plantations in Ecuador. <em>P. cecropiifolia</em>, a tree species with fruits that are currently sought after in the national and international market, plays an important role in the economy and food security of local indigenous populations as well as for export, and is a source of food, fiber and medicinal materials that are sought after in the international market and have not yet been intensively exploited in Ecuador<strong>. Objective</strong>. To establish optimal zones for the implementation of extensive commercial plantations in the Ecuadorian Amazon. <strong>Methodology</strong>. The spatial model was built with a resolution of 2.5 arc, the occurrence points were obtained in situ and from the online database (GBIF), the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to evaluate the suitability, all types of linear, quadratic, product, threshold and hinge features were allowed with a maximum interaction of 200, 50 000 pseudo-absences were used and 10 000 for the regional model. Fitting was by cross-validation (75% training and 25% evaluation), area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) were calculated. <strong>Results</strong>. The model calibration test yielded excellent results with an AUC= 0.918. The BIOS (14,2,12) are the most influential and obtained 77.1% of representativeness; likewise, the temperature should be between 22 - 26 °C and the precipitation between 4 000- and 6 000-mm annual average for its normal development. <strong>Implications</strong>. The current findings indicate that to implement extensive plantations with this fruit species, temperature and precipitation are determinant in its establishment and production. <strong>Conclusions</strong>. It is established that 19560 km2 is the total area for the establishment of fruit plantations with the species, constituting that 16.3% of the Ecuadorian Amazon territory is suitable for the implementation of intensified cultivation with <em>P. cecropiifolia</em>.</p><p><strong>Key words</strong>: distribution model; plantations; native; Ecuadorian Amazon; fruit trees.</p>