DINÁMICA DE LA DISTRIBUCIÓN POTENCIAL DE Coffea arabica y C. canephora ANTE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN TRES REGIONES DE MÉXICO

<p><strong>Background:</strong> The coffee sector is fundamental in the economic, social, and environmental aspects of coffee-producing regions in Mexico. However, climate change is altering the optimal agroclimatic conditions for the cultivation of <em>Coffea arabica</em> and <em>C. canephora</em>, threatening future production. Given the regional variability of these impacts, it is necessary to identify how climate change will affect the suitability for production in specific regions. Studies focused on species distribution provide key tools to gauge these impacts and issue recommendations aimed at adapting to climate change. <strong>Objective:</strong> To assess the potential impact of climate change on the production of Coffea arabica and C. canephora, using a species distribution approach in the northeastern region of Puebla, the mountains of Veracruz, and the Mazatec region of Oaxaca. <strong>Materials and Methods:</strong> This study was conducted using a species distribution approach, with modeling carried out through MaxEnt software to project the potential distribution of the species. Future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP585 for the period 2041–2060 were evaluated. <strong>Results and Discussion:</strong> The results suggest significant changes in the distribution of both species. For <em>C. arabica,</em> there is a general trend of reduction in optimal areas, with notable regional variations. <em>C. canephora,</em> on the other hand, shows a different response, with some areas showing an increase in the distribution of this species. The most influential variables in the distribution of both species were precipitation, elevation, and wind speed. <strong>Implications:</strong> If future agroclimatic conditions favor the expansion of C. canephora, as projections suggest for some regions, a partial transition to this species could be considered as an adaptation strategy. <strong>Conclusions:</strong> The study concluded that climate change will significantly reduce the distribution of C. arabica and moderately favor C. canephora, with differentiated regional impacts. It is crucial to adjust management strategies according to each region to ensure the sustainability of coffee production.</p>