Predicting climate change impacts on marine fisheries, biodiversity and economy in the Canary/Iberia current upwelling system

The vulnerability of fisheries to climate change (CC) is driven by exposure factors that can affect species and fisheries differently at regional level. Ecological and socioeconomic consequences of climate change were assessed by evaluating a set of species (N = 53), caught by Portuguese fleet, that are likely to be affected by changes in oceanographical conditions (climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) by the middle of this century (2041-2060). A novel approach was used which consist in estimate species habitat vulnerability index to CC by combining species habitat suitability with species sensitivity (life history ecological-biological traits), that was considered the weighting score for habitat suitability estimations by niche ecological models. Exploited species denote little specialization and have a large marginalization range with results showing that shifts in environmental variables, expected in the future, did not alter general distribution patterns of study species. Specialization was associated with sea surface temperature while marginality to depth, indicating that species can find refuges at higher depths without losing distribution range. Predicted changes in habitat suitability values across all species varied between a decrease of 11 % and an increase of 7 %, with species mean shifts around ±4 %. Catch composition by species (similarity >95 % regardless scenario/area), functional groups (similarity >97 % regardless scenario/area), trophic level structure (similarity >98 % regardless scenario/area) and marine biodiversity (marine trophic index ∼ 3.35 regardless scenario/area) projected for the middle of this century, showed similarities to the present scenario. Economic losses estimated for the middle of this century correspond to a maximum value of 3 % in catch and 2.3 % economically. Fisheries revenue could not be jeopardized due to CC until the middle of the century. Under results found maintaining sustainable fishing management strategies is the best way to mitigate CC effects.