Comparative assessment of circular economy performance in the Baltic States using MCDM methods

Implementation and progress towards circularity are widely recognized characteristics of CE transitions across Europe, and the transition to CE sits firmly at the core of the European Union’s sustainable development strategy. Using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, this study conducts a comparative evaluation of CE performance in the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). Based on Eurostat data, three related indicators were chosen to represent the multidimensional nature of circularity: waste generation per capita (non-beneficial), recycling rate of municipal waste, and circular material use rate (both beneficial). The indicators were analyzed over multiple years (2010–2023) to capture temporal dynamics and shifts in the national performance. The was used to order the countries by normalizing such indicators from the chosen years and assigning them equal weight. The outcome shows that, in fact, Estonia is better off than its neighbors in two out of three aspects, and that its waste per capita and materials usage per capita is significantly improving. Latvia performs best in recycling but least well in material circularity and waste minimisation. Lithuania does consistently okay, moderate performance across the board. This study adds to CE literature by developing a replicable, dynamic framework for national CE evaluation. It provides empirical evidence about regional divides operating within a common EU policy framework; and a methodological framework for more fine-grained, empirical evidence-based policy action. The findings contribute to debate for scholars and practitioners on how to benchmark and improve CE implementation in small-state contexts.