What makes social policy programs (un)popular? Disentangling the causal impact of policy design, risk group deservingness and mode of delivery

Social policy scholars often argue that policy programs are more popular when they are universally accessible, targeted at deserving social risk groups, or provided in kind rather than in cash. I argue, however, that most existing evidence is inconclusive because it typically conflates the respective factors of programs’ policy design, risk group deservingness and mode of delivery. Using data from a factorial vignette experiment in Belgium and the United States, this article is the first to uncover both the relative and additive causal impact of these factors on popular support for social policy. Results show that while policy design has a stronger impact relative to risk group deservingness and delivery mode, it is the specific combination of these factors that matters most for programs’ popularity. Given what we know about policymakers’ responsiveness to public opinion, these findings also have important implications for the political success and redistributive outcomes of social policy programs.