Insights into Slip-Rate Time Functions, Rupture Parameter Correlations, and Ground Motions from Validated Multicycle Earthquake Ruptures

ABSTRACT Earthquake strong-motion predictions using kinematic source modeling require knowledge of the slip-rate functions (SRFs) along the rupture and their distinct characteristics in asperities, background (off-asperity) areas and near the surface. Here, we analyzed SRFs from well-validated, self-consistent, and fully dynamic rupture models from earthquake cycles obeying a rate-and-state friction law, from our companion study (Galvez et al., 2021). The shapes of SRFs in asperities are well described by the regularized Yoffe function (RYF), which has only two parameters: rise time Tr and smoothing time Ts, which control the generation of long- and short-period ground motions, respectively. In background areas, we demonstrate that, in addition to the primary rupture, multiple secondary ruptures may also nucleate from rupture heterogeneities related to asperities, resulting in SRFs with multiple peaks. Because it is impossible to fit a multiple-peak SRF by the single-peak RYF, we describe SRFs in background areas in an effective way by fitting their amplitude spectra with the RYF spectra. Such spectrally effective RYFs capture salient aspects of seismic-wave generation and can be used in rupture generators for strong motion prediction. We found that small Ts values correlate with small characteristic weakening distances, large peak slip rates (PSRs), and large rupture velocities. Tr values are larger in background areas and smaller in asperities. Within the shallow aseismic zone, Ts values approximately quadruple whereas Tr values approximately double. Because of this dominant Ts increase, PSR values decrease in the near-surface zone. These features indicate that the generation of strong motions by the near-surface portions of the rupture is negligible in the studied scenarios.