Container Truck High-Risk Events Prediction and Its Influencing Factors Analyses Based on Trajectory Data

With the prosperity of the economy and the continuous expansion of the port area, container trucks have become the main means of transportation on port roads. Traditional traffic flow research mainly focuses on passenger cars. In view of the unique characteristics of container truck traffic flow and the lack of research on conflict-influencing factors for this traffic flow, this paper is committed to filling this research gap. This paper uses drones and YOLOv8 technology to construct a vehicle trajectory dataset in the container truck traffic flow scenario and extracts relevant features of container truck traffic flow from vehicle trajectory data from a macro perspective. For the trajectory data after denoising, the time to collision (TTC) indicator is used to identify conflict events, and then the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) is used to obtain four datasets. Machine learning and related classification models are selected for conflict prediction. It is worth noting that the XGBoost model performs better than other models on the four datasets, with an accuracy of 0.86 and an AUC value of 0.933. The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) theory is used to explain and analyze the model results and compare them with existing studies. The results show that in container truck traffic flow, traffic density is the most important factor affecting conflicts, and conflicts occur more frequently when the traffic density is between 50 and 70 vehicles/km, followed by lane change rate. In contrast, for general traffic flows, studies have shown that speed is the main factor affecting conflicts.