Estimating Storm Surge Risk along Balkan Coast: Methodologies, Models and Applications

The relevance of this study lies in its contribution to understanding storm surge dynamics and the development of effective coastal protection strategies, which are critical in mitigating the impact of climate change on vulnerable coastal ecosystems and infrastructure along the Balkan coast. The study aims to analyse methods for forecasting storm surges along the coast, assessing their impact on coastal ecosystems and developing effective protection measures, including the use of breakwaters and sediment budget assessment. This study used meteorological and hydrodynamic modelling, as well as geographical analysis and sediment budget estimation techniques, to predict and analyse the impact of storm surges on coastal areas. The study found that the most intense storm surge waves on the coast occur during winter and autumn, with the greatest risk to coastal ecosystems in the East Coast region. Numerical hydrodynamic modelling techniques in wave prediction models can accurately forecast wave height and direction, which greatly enhances the accuracy of storm surge predictions. The influence of shoreline morphology, including bottom slope and the presence of natural barriers, showed that the presence of coastal sandbanks and barrier reefs significantly reduces the strength of waves reaching land, thereby mitigating the effects of storms. Analyses of the impact of Rubble breakwaters confirmed their high effectiveness in reducing erosion and protecting the shoreline from damage, with structures orientated to wave patterns and bottom depth being the most successful. The sediment budget assessment showed that storm surges significantly change the distribution of sand masses along the coast, which affects the sustainability of coastal ecosystems and requires regular monitoring. The study confirmed the need for an integrated approach to storm surge forecasting and coastal protection, including the use of wave barriers, infrastructure adaptation and monitoring of changes in coastal morphology.