Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Karst Fault Basin Based on FLUS and InVEST Models

Karst topography comprises a fragile ecological environment with a significant potential for carbon sequestration. It is characterized by severe rocky desertification, particularly in China’s karst fault basin. Therefore, there is a crucial need to scientifically evaluate the variations in carbon storage over time and space in this area to ensure effective land space planning and regional ecological security, especially considering the dual carbon target. Using land use data (1985–2020) from the karst fault basin in Southwest China, the study employed the InVEST model to evaluate temporal and spatial variations in carbon storage. A time span of 35 years was examined, and predictions regarding carbon storage in 2050 were formulated under three different conditions: natural evolution, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection. These predictions were based on natural, social, and economic driving factors. The results revealed a fluctuating downward trend in regards to carbon storage in the study area from 1985 to 2020, with a total decrease of 2.1 × 106 t. After 2000, there has been significant improvement in the dynamic degree of land use for forest land, grassland, and construction land compared to the levels before 2000. Additionally, many land use types with high carbon density transitioned into those with lower carbon density. Spatially, the carbon density in the karst fault basin was higher in the north and lower in the central and southern basins. At the county spatial scale, except for the northern and central parts of the study area, there was a decrease in total carbon storage in the remaining counties. By 2050, under the ecological protection scenario, total carbon storage is projected to increase by approximately 6 × 106 t, whereas under the natural evolution and cultivated land protection scenarios, it is expected to decrease by 2 × 106 t and 3 × 106 t, respectively. Specifically, under the natural evolution scenario, only five counties will experience an increase in carbon storage, while the other counties will witness a decrease. The findings of this study offer a scientific basis for enhancing ecosystem carbon services through land management practices and the control of rocky desertification in the karst fault basin. They can inform decision-making processes regarding carbon sequestration, ecosystem restoration, and sustainable land use planning in the region.