Forecasting New State University Student Admissions Through The XII Level Student Achievement Pathway Smk Negeri 1 Bandung Tulungagung Using Arima Method

Education is a means that allows individuals to develop their potential through the learning process. Vocational High School (SMK) is a formal education that prepares students to become middle-level workers or continue to college. The PTN entrance selection system involves three selection paths: SNBP, SNBT, and Independent Selection. This research aims to optimize the process of accepting new students graduating from SMK Negeri 1 Bandung Tulungagung through achievement channels, especially from report card scores. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method pays attention to trends in student score data of those accepted at state universities in the previous year, namely student report cards from semester 1 to semester 5. From the ARIMA analysis that was carried out for student admissions at state universities, the best ARIMA model was obtained (1,1,2) with an average MAPE error value of 2.12%.