Assessing future land use demands in response to land degradation risk and Socio-Economic impacts

• Construct a comprehensive assessment framework for land degradation sensitivity combined GIS with remote sensing datasets to evaluate land sensitivity to degradation. • Expand the traditional input–output table and embed the land resource account to analyze the land structure demand under socio-economic impacts using CGELUC-DLS model. • Provide reference for prioritizing the land management area based on the carbon sink simulation results. Land degradation in Shanxi Province threatens environmental services and socioeconomic growth. The region is a crucial resource-based location for the development of energy from coal mines in China. However, land degradation threatens sustainable development and ecological security. This study seeks to understand the complicated processes of land degradation and carbon stock variations in Shanxi Province’s degraded areas. The objectives include assessing the sensitivity of land degradation using a range of data (land use, soil, vegetation, topography, climate, and socio-economic) and predicting the dynamics of land systems under various environmental and socio-economic impacts and the spatial distribution of carbon stocks. The results reveal that the severity of land degradation has typically lessened after the implementation of the Grain-for-Green project. The proportion of the most severely degraded land at high risk of degradation decreased from 6.02% to 1.29%. Additionally, the proportion of land that is mildly vulnerable has increased by 5.48%. However, rapid urbanization raises land degradation sensitivity in 2020. The overall percentage of critical land degradation sensitivity exceeds one third of the land in Shanxi Province. Therefore, faced with the challenge of balancing ecological conservation and socio-economic development in land use management, this study modeled the land use demands and spatial distribution, and carbon sinks under various scenarios. This study contributes to a better understanding of sustainable land management in fragile ecological zones and enriches the decision-making process for land resource management, particularly in the context of socio-economic policy changes.