An analytical study of the wheat market in Egypt using simultaneous equations models

Cereals, particularly wheat, are essential elements in the diet of nations, especially in developing countries such as Egypt. Despite the annual growth in local wheat production, which reached approximately 172,000 tons between 2001 and 2022, this increase has not kept pace with the population growth, leading to a self-sufficiency rate of only 52.9%. This forces Egypt to rely on imports to bridge the food gap. The aim of this study is to analyze the structure of the wheat market in Egypt and investigate the factors influencing consumption, imports, and domestic supply. A Simultaneous Econometric Model was used to evaluate these factors. The results showed that increases in population and domestic production lead to higher consumption, while higher prices and individual income are linked to reduced consumption. Additionally, an inverse relationship was found between imports, import prices, and domestic production, indicating that increasing local production could reduce reliance on imports. To enhance wheat self-sufficiency in Egypt, it is essential to boost local production through the development of high-yielding varieties suited for various land types. Farmers should be supported by providing high-quality seeds, pesticides, and other inputs, while setting appropriate prices that align with global market trends. It is also recommended to improve storage technologies to reduce losses and ensure the sustainability of domestic supply