Screening the yield potential of some bread and durum wheat under new valley conditions using some statistical procedures

Heat stress is a significant challenge for agriculture in dry and semi-arid regions. This study investigates the effects of temperature on the yields of eighteen wheat genotypes (ten bread wheat and eight durum wheat) grown in New Valley, Egypt, during the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 growing seasons using a randomized complete block design (RCBD). We examined the relationship between yield and traits influencing yield under heat stress through simple correlation, and partial and path coefficient analysis. Key characteristics for selecting high-yielding wheat genotypes include the number of spikes per square meter (NS/m²), the number of kernels per spike (NK/S), and the 1000-kernel weight (TKW). The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) identified weight coefficients of 0.744 for NS/m², 0.135 for NK/S, and 0.121 for TKW. Breeding criteria focus on increasing NS/m² while minimizing NK/S and TKW to select heat-resistant varietiesin three scenarios. Notably, the genotypes Misr 2, Misr 4, Sakha 95 (bread wheat), Beniswef 7, Beniswef 8, and Sohag 4 (durum wheat) showed comparable heat tolerance in both growing seasons. These findings can aid plant breeders in developing cultivars better suited for warmer, arid conditions.