URBAN SPRAWL TRANSITION RULE ALGORITHM CONCEPT IN CELLULAR AUTOMATA FRAMEWORK: CASE STUDY OF MALALAYANG DISTRICT, MANADO CITY, INDONESIA

This study aimed to develop an urban sprawl model transition rule algorithm based on land coverage indicators in a cellular automata grid framework. This study attempts to identify various attributes that impact land coverage in a spatial grid cell using statistical and spatial analysis methods. This concept provides a theoretical and methodological basis for developing a more comprehensive urban sprawl simulation model. The results indicated three determinant factors for the condition of land coverage in a cellular automata spatial grid cell: built-up land conditions, slope gradients, and the availability of road network infrastructure. The concept of the algorithm found can be expressed through the following statements: 1) built-up land in a particular spatial grid will be influenced by the condition of built-up land in neighboring grid cells, with a determination of 67%; 2) every one unit increase in the average area of built-up land in neighboring cells will be associated with the same phenomenon in a particular grid cell of 1.08 units; 3) built-up land on each spatial grid is correlated with the slope gradient and the availability of road network infrastructure on the spatial grid; 4) the flatter the slope condition of a spatial grid will be associated with higher built-up land in the spatial grid cell; and 5) the better the road infrastructure availability on a particular spatial grid will be associated with higher built-up land.