Ecological Aspect and Prospects of Sustainable Development of Regions

This study examines the relationship between rising average annual temperatures and disease incidence in Tashkent from 1991 to 2022, with a forecast extending to 2029. Using statistical time series analysis, the research employs the Spearman correlation coefficient and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict morbidity trends. Findings reveal that Tashkent’s temperate climate and agricultural development contribute to demographic growth, with the population increasing elevenfold from 1897 to 2023. However, rapid population growth, industrialisation, and urban expansion have intensified environmental pressures, increasing the burden on natural resources and infrastructure. Industrialisation, which accounts for almost 20% of Uzbekistan’s production, has exacerbated air pollution and green space loss, further impacting public health. This, along with rising temperatures, affects public health, increasing the incidence of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. A strong positive correlation (p = 0.761) was found between rising temperatures and the incidence of cardiovascular diseases per 100,000 people. In 2021, at an average annual temperature of 16.7°C, the incidence of cardiovascular diseases reached 8,730.2 cases per 100.000 population. Projections for 2023-2029 indicate a further increase in morbidity, underscoring the urgency for adaptive measures. The study recommends the implementation of adaptation measures focused on improving health services, preventive initiatives, and mitigating climate impacts. Further research should consider other factors, such as socio-economic status, quality of health care, and pollution levels, as well as examine the impact of climate on specific disease groups. The findings confirm the substantial impact of climate change on urban health, highlighting the importance of developing effective health policies.