Future Water Management under Climate Change Conditions in Fayoum, Egypt

Climate change and rising water demand have made the sustainable management of water resources a significant challenge. In this context, simulation models prove valuable for addressing the uncertainty and complexity of water systems by providing stakeholders with optimal solutions. This research introduces a comprehensive management planning framework developed using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) alongside the Water Security Quality-based Index (WSQI) to evaluate the current and future water management systems of Fayoum Governorate across various scenarios. The WEAP model serves as a decision-support tool that assesses major stressors on demand and supply concerning water availability at the catchment scale. It can depict intricate systems, integrating multiple sectors within a single watershed or a cross-border river system while considering water supply and related demand areas. The model development for the Fayoum base case in 2023 has been calibrated and validated using quantitative statistics. The base case in 2023 and three future scenarios in 2050 (realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic) were evaluated. According to global circulation models, the future scenarios predicted a 25% decrease in Nile flow entry by 2050. The WSQI is a new ranking system based on both water security and water quality. The reduction in flow aggravated water scarcity and increased reuse. Consequently, the WSQI indicated significant water insecurity. The severity of the water shortage decreased from severe to moderate. The research revealed that adaptation measures could enhance future water availability and safety in Fayoum.