Assessment and Future Scenario Analyses of Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Co-Managed Forest: The Case of Chunati Wildlife Sanctuary in Bangladesh

The co-management approach has emerged as a significant strategy for forest and wildlife conservation, aiming to balance ecological preservation with the socio-economic needs of local communities. Despite its adoption in several protected areas in Bangladesh, including the Chunati Wildlife Sanctuary (CWS), forest degradation and anthropogenic pressures persist. This study investigates the effectiveness of co-management in mitigating land use and land cover (LULC) changes in CWS and explores future land use scenarios to inform sustainable management strategies. Specifically, the study seeks to (1) assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of LULC changes in CWS from 2004 to 2021, (2) project future LULC changes under natural development and ecology preservation scenarios using the CLUE-s model, and (3) assess the effectiveness of current co-management strategy in conserving CWS forested area.The findings reveal a steady decline in forest cover, particularly in beats near forest boundaries, despite reforestation efforts. Agricultural expansion and settlement development were identified as primary drivers of degradation. Projections indicate that stringent conservation measures under the ecology preservation scenario could lead to significant recovery in forest and wetland areas by 2030, whereas the natural development scenario predicts continued ecological degradation. These results highlight the limitations of the current co-management framework and underscore the need for tailored interventions, enhanced governance, and community engagement to achieve sustainable conservation goals. This study contributes to the broader discourse on adaptive co-management strategies and their potential to reconcile conservation and development objectives in tropical developing regions.