Using Naive Models to Improve US Dollar Exchange Rate Trend Prediction

This paper extends our previous research, which proposed a methodology based on the following hypothesis: dealing with the problem of predicting the next-day USD/BRL exchange rate daily trend, the existence of calendar effects allows us to improve trained voting-based ensemble models without model retraining.In the present work, we propose adding nave models to the originally proposed methodology because nave models would also potentially benefit from the calendar effect becoming a benchmark to consider.The experiments confirmed that nave models are not just challenging benchmarks but also models that can be included in the process to improve existing voting-ensemble models.On average, adding the nave models to the original solution generated an increase higher than 100% in the value of the primary metric adopted for performance measurement.Constantly overwhelmed by more complex solutions, we can take these outcomes as a reminder not to neglect simplicity.