Early numeracy development as a foundation of mathematics achievement in primary education

This study investigated 1) the development of early numeracy (EN) across kindergarten and Grade 1, 2) parental socioeconomic factors contributing to EN development, and 3) the predictive value of EN development for mathematics achievement mid-primary school. The sample included 1252 children. EN was measured bi-annually between mid-kindergarten Year 1 and end Grade 1. Latent growth curve modeling revealed non-linear development of EN, with stronger growth throughout kindergarten and a flattening curve in Grade 1, without reaching ceiling. Lower maternal education level and migration background were associated with lower EN at baseline but also greater improvement over time. Higher baseline EN and growth positively predicted mathematics achievement in mid-primary school. Findings confirm significant EN development throughout early grades, but learning gains are not optimal in the current informal setting. Implications for early screening and intervention to address insufficient foundational skills, and promote later mathematics achievement, are addressed. • Growth trajectories for early numeracy development were examined longitudinally from mid-Kindergarten until end of Grade 1. • The predictive value of early numeracy for mathematics achievement mid-primary school is demonstrated. • Latent growth curve modeling reveals accelerated growth in Kindergarten followed by decelerated growth in Grade 1. • Children from lower maternal education levels and migration backgrounds show significant improvement over time. • The absence of a ceiling effect suggests suboptimal development, highlighting the need for early screening or intervention.