Prediction analysis and control strategies on coupling coordination between low-carbon transportation and high-quality economic development in the backward U-shaped bend metropolitan area of the Yellow River Basin

The coordinated development of the economy and low-carbon transportation in ecologically sensitive areas has always been a persistent challenge for urban development. Optimizing the low-carbon transportation system is critical for achieving high-quality economic development in a typical ecologically sensitive region, the backward U-shaped bend metropolitan area (BUBMA) of the Yellow River Basin. With the acceleration of China’s Dual Carbon targets, understanding the interactive relationship between low-carbon transportation (LCT) and high-quality economic development (HQED) is an essential prerequisite for advancing ecological protection and implementing high-quality development strategies. This study explores the coupling coordination problem and its prediction and regulatory strategies during the spatiotemporal evolution of LCT and HQED in the BUBMA by employing methods such as the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD), Monte Carlo simulation (MC), and Grey prediction.The findings reveal the following: (1) The comprehensive indices of 15 cities exhibit significant disparities during the entire research period, characterized by high values in the central region and low values at both ends for LCT, while HQED demonstrates a transition from an evident “olive-shaped” spatial pattern to one marked by high values in the south and low values in the north. (2) The proposed CCD prediction framework can offer an objective reflection of future trends. The CCDs of these 15 cities have shown a growth trend, with the average CCD projected to reach the stage of barely coordinated development（0.554）by 2030. (3) Four key indicators，which include the share of non-fossil energy consumption, highway network density, air passenger traffic per 10,000 people and high-speed rail mileage per 10,000 people, have significant positive driving effects on the development of LCT. The comprehensive regulatory strategies for these influencing factors are proposed based on forecast and target scenarios. The empirical findings provide important insights for optimizing the CCD and its regulation strategies of these two systems, thus providing guidance for formulating coordinated development policies and sustainable governance strategies.