Enhancing Transthyretin Binding Affinity Prediction with a Consensus Model: Insights from the Tox24 Challenge

Transthyretin (TTR) plays a vital role in thyroid hormone transport and homeostasis in both the blood and target tissues. Interactions between exogenous compounds and TTR can disrupt the function of the endocrine system, potentially causing toxicity. In the Tox24 challenge, we leveraged the data set provided by the organizers to develop a deep learning-based consensus model, integrating sPhysNet, KANO, and GGAP-CPI for predicting TTR binding affinity. Each model utilized distinct levels of molecular information, including 2D topology, 3D geometry, and protein-ligand interactions. Our consensus model achieved favorable performance on the blind test set, yielding an RMSE of 20.8 and ranking fifth among all submissions. Following the release of the blind test set, we incorporated the leaderboard test set into our training data, further reducing the RMSE to 20.6 in an offlineretrospective study. These results demonstrate that combining three regression models across different modalities significantly enhances the predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we employ the standard deviation of the consensus model's ensemble outputs as an uncertainty estimate. Our analysis reveals that both the RMSE and interval error of predictions increase with rising uncertainty, indicating that the uncertainty can serve as a useful measure of prediction confidence. We believe that this consensus model can be a valuable resource for identifying potential TTR binders and predicting their binding affinity in silico. The source code for data preparation, model training, and prediction can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaolinpan/tox24_challenge_submission_yingkai_lab.