The hypothesis of the 1513/1514 very large earthquake in the East Anatolian Fault Zone: rise and weakness

Abstract Most of the scientific literature on the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) mentions a very large earthquake occurring in 1513 or 1514, presumably in the Pazarcik segment. This earthquake could play an important role in the assessment of the EAFZ seismogenic potential, provided its parameters were reliable. However, these parameters have a flimsy historical basis: just a few words of a letter sent from Damascus to Venice in March 1514, reporting severe damage in three towns in south-eastern Anatolia, one of which is hundreds kilometres away from the other two. Despite extensive research into contemporary and later historical sources and the history of monumental buildings of the three towns, we have found no evidence of damage/restoration to monuments predating 1513/1514 in the affected sites. Nor are there mentions of earthquake effects elsewhere in Anatolia and surrounding countries. Contemporary reports—mostly concerned with the 1514/1517 wars between the Ottoman, Safavid and Mamluk empires—make no mention of this earthquake or of any hindrances which its aftermath might have caused to troops marching through the allegedly devastated region (e.g. with regard to procuring supplies and shelter, or to travel difficulties due to damage to road infrastructures, landslides and the like). At the current state of knowledge, we suggest that the only available earthquake description may be either unwittingly overestimated, or possibly a conflation of two smaller earthquakes, with different epicentral locations.