Moderating Effects of Exchange Rates in the US-China Context: A Study on Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), Stock Indices, and Crude Oil Price

This study investigates how Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) from the US and China, along with US stock indices, influence crude oil prices. It specifically examines the moderating effects of US and Chinese exchange rates on these relationships. Using data from January 2016 to December 2023 and regression analysis, the result show that US PMI, Chinese PMI, and US stock indices significantly impact oil prices. Interestingly, the US exchange rate moderates the impact of US PMI more, while the Chinese exchange rate moderates the impact of Chinese PMI and US stock indices on oil prices. This suggests China's growing economic influence, as changes in its currency index have a stronger moderating effect on these relationships.