Hellenic airspace violations: An updating note

This is a note to update an earlier published paper, which focused on forecasting Hellenic flight information region violations by Turkish aircraft. The update became necessary following certain geopolitical and economic developments in the Mediterranean, mainly the Athens Agreement. The least-squares best fit model for the 2009–2019 data set for Hellenic airspace violations was used, accompanied by additional ordinary least squares estimates and forecasts. We showed that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty described in the above-mentioned paper is now different in terms of the methods exercised; it is also cheaper. However, it is equally, if not more, effective. We interpret this shift by arguing that Turkey is a Political Realism follower, focusing on the importance of power, security, and national interest in shaping its actions, regardless of the ideological or ethical implications of such actions. This explains its preference for exerting pressure in the form of sea border violations and massive forced emigration from Turkey to the European Union via Greece. This note concludes that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty in the Aegean involving Hellenic airspace violations by Turkish aircraft has been modified. Turkey now prefers cheaper but equally effective methods, such as sea border violations and, in most cases, hybrid warfare tactics, like massive forced emigration.