Risk Assessment for Compound Disaster Events of Hot-Drought and Hot-Humid in Shandong, China

The climate risk assessment (CRA) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating hazards, exposure, and vulnerability by integrating multiple methodologies. Previous research demonstrated that the impact of compound disasters on socioeconomic activities extends beyond a mere aggregation of individual hazard effects. This study aims to conduct a climate risk assessment for compound disaster events of hot-drought and hot-humid and employ an atmospheric reanalysis dataset (ERA5) to obtain precipitation, temperature, and humidity across 16 cities in Shandong Province, China. The findings revealed that between 1979 and 2019, the frequency of hot and drought compound events fluctuated, whereas the occurrence of hot and humid compound events displayed a significant increasing trend. Specifically, the frequency of hot and humid compound events across Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019 was 77% higher than that observed from 1979 to 1989. We identified 12 vulnerability, exposure, and capacity indicators, including two compound hazard events. Using the CRA framework, this study applied the entropy method to evaluate the weight factors of the indicators in risk assessment, enabling a systematic risk assessment of summer compound events in the region. The results offer a ranking of urban compound disaster risks for 16 cities and provide valuable insights for local governments to enhance risk identification efficiency and strengthen disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.