Safeguarding European space sovereignty—Recommendations for operational climate services to support resilience

Europe’s space sector needs operational climate services to remain safe. Operational climate services ought to include both the regular production of high-resolution climate change projections, similar to operational weather forecasts, as well as the derivation of space-sector-specific climate impact indices. Climate projections are mainly executed within the scientific realm, while climate indices are oftentimes developed in short-lived projects. This leaves climate risk assessments of critical European space infrastructure, including the Guiana Space Center in Kourou, French Guiana, reliant on the foresight of climate scientists. The absence of comprehensive and periodic climate risk assessments for this sector could compromise Europe’s capability to launch and replenish its earth observation, navigation, and telecommunication satellites in the event of damage or destruction. The consequences can be significant, with potential impacts on European security, defence, and economic stability. In this paper we advocate for increased collaboration between climate service scientists and strategic operational managers of European space infrastructure to ensure that relevant and usable climate indices are developed through a co-design process. Climate services can help prioritize concerns and manage resources to build resilience in the space sector. Ultimately, climate-related hazards should be considered a space threat by the European Union.