Abstract LB331: Enhanced polygenic risk score for pancreatic cancer

Abstract Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the U.S. mainly because of late-stage diagnosis. Heritable genetic information can improve risk stratification for individuals with moderate to high-risk of PDAC for targeted screening and early detection. We aimed to develop an enhanced polygenic risk score (PRS) for PDAC using a Bayesian approach, LDpred2, that reweights risk estimates attributed to millions of polymorphisms (SNPs) estimated from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We then compared the performance of LDpred2 with the commonly used genetic risk score (GRS) approach that is based only on genome-wide significant SNPs. Methods: GWAS summary statistics were obtained from the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium and the Pancreatic Cancer Case Control Consortium for 9040 cases and 12496 controls and were used to compute weights for a GRS (17 SNPs) using a p-value threshold of 5e-8 and weights for an enhanced PRS (1.3 million SNPs) using LDpred2. These weights were then used to compute risk scores in an independent validation sample of 2616 cases and 45407 controls from the Mayo Clinic. We used logistic regression to test for associations of the GRS and PRS with PDAC risk, adjusting for age, sex, and the first 10 principal components of ancestry. Results: The validation sample was of mostly European ancestries (>95%). Cases were slightly older than controls (median age: 66 yrs. vs. 63 yrs.) and had a higher frequency of men than controls (57% vs. 42%). Comparisons between the GRS and the PRS are shown in Table 1. DeLong’s test comparing the AUCs between the two genetic scores showed the PRS significantly outperformed the GRS (AUC = 0.68 vs. 0.67; p = 7.6e-7). Conclusions: The LDpred2 PRS model that used a larger set of SNPs significantly improved prediction of PDAC. Comparing the top percentile of the PRS versus the rest showed that the PRS is a clinically significant risk score (OR > 3) for PDAC and could inform clinical decision making and genetic counseling of individuals identified as having a high risk of PDAC. Citation Format: Samuel O. Antwi, Brandon J. Coombes, Nicholas B. Larson, Erin E. Carlson, Kari G. Rabe, Hunter J. Atkinson, Shounak Majumder, Jun Zhong, David McKean, Pancreatic Cancer Cohort & Case Control Consortia (PanScan and PanC4), Brian M. Wolpin, Rachael Z. Stolzenberg-Solomon, Alison P. Klein, Laufey T. Amundadottir, Ann L. Oberg. Enhanced polygenic risk score for pancreatic cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 2 (Late-Breaking, Clinical Trial, and Invited Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_2):Abstract nr LB331.