Nonlinear Abundance–Area Relationship Underlying Processes of the American Bullfrog Invasion in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China

The small-island effect (SIE) has been used to quantify the increase of established non-native species richness with island area but has not yet been applied to explore the dynamics of non-native species abundance, which is important to develop timely mitigation strategies on established populations. Based on field surveys of established populations of the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus = Rana catesbeiana) across 92 permanent water bodies on 31 islands in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China, we explored the abundance-area relationship (AAR) of the invasive bullfrogs at the island and habitat (i.e., permanent still waters) scales, respectively. We did not detect the non-linear increase of bullfrog abundance with island area in the Zhoushan Archipelago, but found a piecewise trend of the bullfrog abundance with the area of invaded waters. Overall, bullfrogs were more abundant on larger islands, less isolated islands, and in waters with lower densities of native anurans. Our findings indicate that the invasive bullfrogs may have not reached the threshold of rapid increase of population abundance in the Zhoushan Archipelago and highlight the importance of continued close monitoring to prevent future population outbreaks.