Morphological Variation and Spatial Distribution Patterns of Krascheninnikovia compacta (Losinsk.) Grubov in the Tibetan Antelope Breeding Grounds of the Western Kunlun Mountains

The study aims to analyze morphological variations and spatial distribution patterns of <i>Krascheninnikovia compacta</i> (Losinsk.) Grubov communities across 12 sampling areas at different elevations in the Tibetan antelope breeding grounds of the western Kunlun Mountains. Additionally, it projected the future climatically suitabie habitats of <i>K. compacta</i> under climate change scenarios, aiming to elucidate its community characteristics, spatial distribution dynamics, and the impacts of global warming on its growth. Integrated GIS, remote sensing, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were used to investigate <i>K. compacta</i> communities. The Pearson correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between crown diameter, as well as between plant height and environmental factors. The redundancy analysis (RDA) results indicated that multiple environmental factors jointly explained the variation in plant height and crown diameter of <i>K. compacta</i>. Point pattern analysis, using the g(r) function combined with two null models, demonstrated changes in plant distribution during scale transitions. Additionally, the MaxEnt model was employed to project the potential suitable habitats of <i>K. compacta</i> under future climate scenarios. Overall, as the elevational gradient increases, the plant height of <i>K. compacta</i> gradually decreases while the crown diameter expands. Mean annual temperature (MAT) dominates the morphological variations in crown diameter and plant height, with lower temperatures correlating to shorter plant height and larger crown diameter. The complete spatial randomness (CSR) model indicates that across all elevations, the distribution patterns of plants transition sequentially from uniform to random, then clustered, and back to random as spatial scale increases. The heterogeneous Poisson (HP) model suggests that habitat heterogeneity is the primary driver of shifts in plant distribution patterns at larger scales. The MaxEnt model revealed distinct changes in suitable habitat areas of <i>K. compacta</i> under future climate scenarios. During 2061 to 2080s, its suitable habitats under the SSP126 and SSP585 pathways significantly contracted and expanded markedly, respectively.