A framework for analyzing the market penetration of low-carbon road vehicles

This study assesses pathways for transitioning to low-carbon energy in road transport in a fossil fuel-dependent jurisdiction. A novel assessment framework was developed and applied to road transport to analyze the transition in the sector considering sector activity, vehicle costs, and market shares to 2050. Seven fuel technologies and ten vehicle categories including hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicles were examined across all sectors. Nine scenarios that incorporate three policy pathways – financial incentives, zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, and carbon prices – were evaluated. Different scenarios within these pathways were explored and their impact on vehicle costs and market shares to 2050 were evaluated. A case study focused on Alberta, a fossil fuel-intensive province in Canada, was performed using the developed framework. Results indicate carbon pricing and ZEV incentives alone are insufficient for significant ZEV adoption by 2050. Without a zero-emission vehicle policy, hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric passenger vehicles are projected to have market shares of 16 % and 31 % by 2050, respectively. With a 100 % zero-emission vehicle sales mandate by 2035, these shares rise to 36 % and 64 %, respectively, by 2050. The findings on the effectiveness of policy frameworks can be considered for policy development to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions from the road transportation sector and will inform infrastructure planners and other energy stakeholders. The developed framework can be applied internationally to assess the transport sector. • Market penetration potential of H 2 -FCEVs is lower than BEVs. • Carbon price policy and ZEV incentives alone do not significantly increase ZEVs. • ZEV sales mandate is the most effective policy to transition road transport sector. • Current policies leads to 69 % increase in ZEVs from REF scenario by 2050. • Under current policies, BEVs are expected to have the lowest TCO.