Accelerating residential decarbonisation: How stakeholder decision-making and socio-economic dynamics affect multi-decadal district heating network expansion

District heating networks (DHNs) are essential for decarbonising urban heating but face adoption barriers due to stakeholder complexities, infrastructure legacies, and consumer resistance . Existing models overlook the dynamic, iterative nature of infrastructure development and multi-stakeholder interactions. To address these limitations, this study develops an agent-based model (ABM) that continuously simulates DHN adoption and expansion. Unlike discrete optimisation approaches, this integrates evolving household decision-making, project developer strategies, and dynamic market conditions. Socio-economic factors, spatial dynamics, and temporal evolution are incorporated to provide a comprehensive understanding of DHN diffusion. The model projects that adoption in the studied urban area could reach 30.4% ± 2% of households by 2050. While this projection exceeds the UK's national target of 20% for DHN adoption, it highlights the significant potential to contribute to national decarbonisation goals. Heating bill savings range from 41.9% to 56.3%, while CO 2 emissions are reduced by 24.3% compared to existing gas heated systems. Through the quantification of temporal dynamics and multi-stakeholder interactions, this study offers insights for urban energy transition strategies. These findings can inform policies that accelerate DHN adoption, mitigate risks associated with large-scale infrastructure investments, and contribute to sustainable urban heating strategies aligned with international climate goals. • Exploratory model reveals stakeholder dynamics in DHN expansion. • Case study area projects 30.4 % residential DHN uptake by 2050. • 38 of 50 DHN nodes show consistent build years across simulations. • Homeownership rates highlight impact on adoption: 50 % early adopter's vs 25 % laggards. • Model forecasts 56.3 % heating savings and 24.3 % CO 2 reduction by 2050.