Barriers to digital services trade: Evaluation of their restrictiveness with application of Brier Score

Research background: The improvement in digital transmission has driven the rapid development of digital services trade; however, it comes with more barriers to it. International comparisons of the restriction levels of digital services trade are crucial for promoting its liberalization, thereby obtaining economic gains. To provide a reliable measurement of barriers to digital services trade, it is necessary to construct a reasonable evaluation index system and ensure the objectivity of the determination of measurement indicator weights. Purpose of the article: This study aims to develop a novel method for measuring the restrictiveness of barriers to digital services trade, revealing the current barriers to digital services trade in various economies. Methods: This study establishes an evaluation index system for barriers to digital services trade by using the Brier Score to screen original evaluation indicators. Then, based on the established evaluation index system, the Brier Score is used to hierarchically determine the weights of evaluation indicators. Additionally, it compares the barriers to digital services trade from the total evaluation index and the evaluation index in five policy areas. Findings & value added: Comparative analyses show that most economies have restrictive policies in digital services trade, and they are mainly implemented through two policy areas: infrastructure and payment system. In these two areas, economies face barriers related to digital infrastructure, discriminatory access to payment settlement methods. We also make methodological contributions by using a novel method to measure the restrictiveness of barriers to digital services trade. To the best of our knowledge, no study has integrated the Brier Score with trade policy analysis. Our method improves the overall trade restriction evaluation capability of the evaluation index system and ensures that the weights reflect the level of trade restrictions on the measurement indicators.