Solar Radiation Prediction Based on the Sparrow Search Algorithm, Convolutional Neural Networks, and Long Short-Term Memory Networks

With the challenge of increasing global carbon emissions and climate change, the importance of solar energy as a clean energy source is becoming more pronounced. Accurate solar radiation prediction is crucial for planning and operating solar energy systems. However, the accurate measurement of solar radiation faces challenges due to the high cost of instruments, strict maintenance, and technical complexity. Therefore, this paper proposes a deep learning approach that integrates the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for solar radiation forecasting. The study utilizes solar radiation data from Songjiang District, Shanghai, China, from 2019 to 2020 for empirical analysis. Initially, a correlation analysis was conducted to identify the main factors affecting the intensity of solar radiation, including temperature, clear-sky GHI, solar zenith angle, and relative humidity. Subsequently, the forecasting effectiveness of the model was compared on datasets of 10 min, 30 min, and 60 min, revealing that the model performed best on the 60 min dataset, with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.96221, root mean square error (RMSE) of 65.9691, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 37.9306. Moreover, comparative experimental results show that the SSA-CNN-LSTM model outperforms traditional LSTM, BiLSTM, and CNN-LSTM models in forecasting accuracy, confirming the effectiveness of SSA in parameter optimization. Thus, the SSA-CNN-LSTM model provides a new and efficient tool for solar radiation forecasting, which is of significant importance for the design and management of solar energy systems.