Cost Breakeven Point of Offshore Wind Energy in Brazil

Brazil has abundant natural resources and a largely renewable electricity matrix, with about 90% of its capacity from clean sources. Despite strong offshore wind potential, its economic viability remains uncertain due to the lack of a domestic supply chain and reliance on international cost estimates. This study assesses offshore wind competitiveness in Brazil using the investment decision model (IDM), which minimizes expansion and operational costs through 2031. Capacity factors (CF) from ERA5 data support monthly energy production estimates across load levels. Three scenarios were analyzed: (i) a reference case based on Brazil’s 10-Year Energy Plan (PDE 2031); (ii) mandatory addition of 500 MW/year of offshore wind to assess cost impact; and (iii) a breakeven case with gradual CAPEX and OPEX reductions until offshore wind became cost-competitive. The results indicate that offshore wind energy can become economically viable with a CAPEX range of approximately USD 1500–1550/kW and an OPEX of USD 50–55/kW·year in locations with a CF above 60%. These cost levels have already been observed in global markets and may be achievable in Brazil. However, challenges, such as the lack of a domestic supply chain and volatility in the exchange rate, remain significant barriers.