Spatial Modeling of Auto Insurance Loss Metrics to Uncover Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic

This study addresses key challenges in auto insurance territory risk analysis by examining the complexities of spatial loss data and the evolving landscape of territorial risks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional approaches, such as spatial clustering, are commonly used for territory risk assessment but offer limited predictive capabilities, constraining their effectiveness in forecasting future losses, an essential component of insurance pricing. To overcome this limitation, we propose an advanced predictive modeling framework that integrates spatial loss patterns while accounting for the pandemic’s impact. Our Bayesian-based spatial model captures stochastic spatial autocorrelations among territory rating units and their neighboring regions. This approach enables more robust pattern recognition through predictive modeling. By applying this approach to regulatory auto insurance loss datasets, we analyze industry-level trends in claim frequency, loss severity, loss cost, and insurance loading. The results reveal significant shifts in spatial loss patterns before and during the pandemic, highlighting the dynamic interplay between regional risk factors and external disruptions. These insights provide valuable guidance for insurers and regulators, facilitating more informed decision-making in risk classification, pricing adjustments, and policy interventions in response to evolving spatial and economic conditions.