From Dictatorship to Transition: Syria’s Future in a Changing Middle East

On December 8, 2024 the nearly 60-year-long Baathist dictatorship in Syria, led by the Assad regime, came to an end following a 12-day military operation. As the country undergoes a transformative period where the state system is being rebuilt from the ground up, the post-revolution era has drawn significant attention from regional and international actors. At the forefront of this transition, revolutionary leader and head of the transitional government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, faces numerous economic, security, and socio-political challenges. This commentary aims to provide a perspective on Syria's future by exploring both the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Additionally, it examines the country's regional and global significance, focusing on the obstacles ahead, including sanctions. Furthermore, it analyzes Türkiye's role as a key stakeholder in the Syrian crisis, evaluating its national security concerns, economic interests, and political influence from a socio-political standpoint.