Vegetation resistance to compound drought and heatwave events buffers the spatial shift velocities of vegetation vulnerability

Global warming is increasing compound drought and heatwave events. This elevates vegetation loss probability. Despite spatial shifts in vegetation loss probability being crucial for predicting spatial redistribution patterns of vegetation vulnerability across terrestrial ecosystems, they remain poorly understood under compound drought and heatwave events. In this study, using a vine copula model, vegetation loss probability was quantified under compound drought and heatwave events. Spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability were examined using the concept of velocity change. Spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability would undergo substantial increase based on the satellite observations and future simulations. However, vegetation resistance to droughts buffers spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability (p < 0.01). These findings provide evidence that vegetation vulnerability patterns will undergo substantial spatial changes under compound drought and heatwave events, leading to a spatial redistribution of vegetation in disturbance-prone areas. Vegetation vulnerability during compound drought and heatwave events has shifted spatially over recent decades, and is expected to increase significantly in the future, but vegetation resistance can mitigate these changes, according to an analysis of vegetation indices and model simulations.