Model Predictive Control of Electric Water Heaters in Individual Dwellings Equipped with Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

The residential sector is energy-consuming and one of the biggest contributors to climate change. In France, the adoption of photovoltaics (PV) in that sector is accelerating, which contributes to both increasing energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, even though the technology faces several issues. One issue that slows down the adoption of the technology is the “duck curve” effect, which is defined as the daily variation of net load derived from a mismatch between power consumption and PV power generation periods. As a possible solution for addressing this issue, electric water heaters (EWHs) can be used in residential building as a means of storing the PV power generation surplus in the form of heat in a context where users’ comfort—the availability of domestic hot water (DHW)—has to be guaranteed. Thus, the present work deals with developing model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies—nonlinear/linear MPC (MPC/LMPC) strategies are proposed—to the management of EWHs in individual dwellings equipped with grid-connected PV systems. The aim behind developing such strategies is to improve both the PV power generation self-consumption rate and the economic gain, in comparison with rule-based (RB) control strategies. Inasmuch as DHW and power demand profiles are needed, data were collected from a panel of users, allowing the development of profiles based on a quantile regression (QR) approach. The simulation results (over 6 days) highlight that the MPC/LMPC strategies outperform the RB strategies, while guaranteeing users’ comfort (i.e., the availability of DHW). The MPC/LMPC strategies allow for a significant increase in both the economic gain (up to 2.70 EUR) and the PV power generation self-consumption rate (up to 14.30%ps), which in turn allows the CO2 emissions to be reduced (up to 3.92 kg CO2.eq). In addition, these results clearly demonstrate the benefits of using EWHs to store the PV power generation surplus, in the context of producing DHW in residential buildings.